Archives
The Thin Red Line
International Investment in Turkey and Prospects for Growth.
This memo written for a class on managing global political risk assesses the risk of investment in Turkey. I predicted that the Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not run for President, but that his Justice and Development Party (AKP) would nominate a candidate that shares Erdogan's views on social issues (the likely candidate being Abdullah Gul). This paper was written directly prior to the crisis in Turkey, and correctly predicted Erdogan's decision as well as the advancement of Gul. I, however, did not anticipate the strength of the public's reaction against Gul and the crisis that followed.
Nevertheless, after examining Turkey's economy I find that in the long term, investment in the country's growing sectors will probably generate significant revenue. And, despite the fact that Turkey's relationship with the European Union remains problematic, the country will continue on the path to development. However, I identify a number of long-term risks, noting that Turkey will need to come to terms with the divide between the secular and religious interests.
We're from the United Nations.
And We're Here to Help.
Assessing the Success of the United Nations Mission In Liberia (UNMIL)
This short paper considers the success of The United Nations Mission In Liberia (UNMIL). Considered a badly-needed win, lessons from UNMIL have been used to justify changing the way that the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations Unit administers humanitarian missions worldwide. But what factors account for such a rousing success?
I look at the structure of the mission, historical circumstances necessitating it, and previous UN adventures in the region, coming to the conclusion that UNMIL's success depended not on the UN's capacities but instead on the commitment of the local actors to seek peace. This commitment then allowed the UN to grow a lasting peace.
The conclusion here demonstrates that it is not simply through increased resources or reorganized departments that peace is more easily achieved. Instead, it suggests that peace in troubled regions depends primarily on the belligerent actors, meaning that the outbreak of peace in conflict areas remains fragile and tentative despite international concern.
Financing That Secure Future In A Better World
Using Procurement Strategy to Increase Defense Coordination
This paper assesses the development of a European-wide Common Foreign and Security Policy and argues that more focused strategies are needed at the EU level in order for the CFSP to evolve. As States tend to resist joint control over their military and security policies, the European Union's Third Pillar continues to be the least supra-national of any major EU effort.
In the area of military acquisition and the development of a viable industrial base, this trend is even more pronounced. EU treaties expressly exempt Member States from free trade in military products and services in order to retain jobs in key sectors and as a result of lingering mistrust of one's neighbors. However, the practical consequence of this protection is a bloated, inefficient European military sector which is unable to compete with American, Russian, and Chinese firms. Recently, efforts have begun to consolidate Europe's defense sector by both governments and the private sector, but these efforts remain nascent. I recommend that the EU study the formation of an EU-Wide Acquisition Contracting System to realize increased cost-savings while preventing the further deterioration of the market.
This paper was written for the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, Fall 2006.
Now, what goes on the Helmet?
Assessing UN Hybrid Peacekeeping Missions in Africa: 1991-2006
This paper examines the use of "hybrid UN peacekeeping missions," where the United Nations Peacekeepers share responsibility for the mission with other organizations. These organizations, including NGOs, governments, corpora9tions, and the media, can be effective in implementing the peacekeeping mission, but I find that peace remains as elusive as ever.
In a qualitative analysis, I find that failure to implement a peacekeeping mission results from a number of factors, including low resources, a nebulous and mercurial mission, and exogenous challenges to the stability of the region. Success tends to follow from a tight mission, good relationships with the other peacekeeping actors, and an unwavering commitment to peace. In a quantitative analysis, I found that successful hybrid peacekeeping missions tend to last longer than unsuccessful ones and that successful missions tend to have more contributing countries than unsuccessful ones.
I recommend that the UN should more selectively intervene in missions while working to build up subregional international actors (the African Union, for example). When considering the operation of missions, the UN's Department of Peacekeeping Operations has successfully implemented a number of management tools and these should be extended.
Après moi, Le Deluge
Europe, the CAP, and Barriers to Free Trade
In this essay I argue that Europe's Common Agricultural Policy is a growth out of a "bargain" between German Industrialists and French farmers. This bargain persists because of the political strength of these two groups despite the economic inefficiency of the CAP.
Prospects for CAP's reform are low, given the complacency of consumers and the strength of subsidy-receivers, even though the policy is ultimately unsustainable. It may thus be better to simply wait for the system's collapse rather than try to reform it from within.
Rigged
The Fall of a Washington Institution and the Failure of Anti-Money Laundering Laws
This paper analyzes the scandal that from 2002-2004 enveloped Riggs Bank and ultimately led to its dissolution. Riggs executives and its chief, Joseph Allbitron, laundered money from a number of foreign leaders including Augusto Pinochet of Chile.
While the conventional explanation of Riggs having a "lawless culture" explains much of the bank's failure to enforce banking law, I argue that the competitive pressures under which Riggs operated must also be taken into consideration. I recommend that the Federal government re-evaluate its AML legislation and consider providing more support to banks as they comply with Federal regulations.
The Rise and Fall (and Rise) of Globalization
This essay examines the failures and successes of globalization, arguing that neither the supportive nor the critical arguments of The Washington Consensus can appropriately explain the growing historical record. Instead, what is needed is to examine the long-term and short-term interests of globalizing governments, developed nations, and investors.
Once we understand the interests of the relevant actors, globalization's mixed record becomes clear: globalization works when these actors' interests are in accord, and fails when they are not.
I argue that the solution to globalization's failures is to create an international structure that can manage these interests and ensure that globalization works for everyone.
What Is To Be Done?
Ukraine's Orange Revolution and Prospects for Change in Moscow
This essay outlines a strategy for reformists seeking to take power in Moscow and, more broadly, in Russia. Arguing that the spectacular developments which replaced the authoritarian dictatorship in Ukraine with a popularly-elected government were not unique to Ukraine but could be duplicated in Russia, this essay shows how a successful transfer of power might happen in the Moscow Duma.
The recommendations present in this essay caution against idealism, instead urging reformist parties to construct a stable alliance, develop their grassroots networks, and mount a serious opposition challenge to Putin's political machine.